We sketch how developers of frontier AI systems could construct a structured rationale -- a 'safety case' -- that an AI system is unlikely to cause catastrophic outcomes through scheming. Scheming is a potential threat model where AI systems could pursue misaligned goals covertly, hiding their true capabilities and objectives. In this report, we propose three arguments that safety cases could use in relation to scheming. For each argument we sketch how evidence could be gathered from empirical evaluations, and what assumptions would need to be met to provide strong assurance. First, developers of frontier AI systems could argue that AI systems are not capable of scheming (Scheming Inability). Second, one could argue that AI systems are not capable of posing harm through scheming (Harm Inability). Third, one could argue that control measures around the AI systems would prevent unacceptable outcomes even if the AI systems intentionally attempted to subvert them (Harm Control). Additionally, we discuss how safety cases might be supported by evidence that an AI system is reasonably aligned with its developers (Alignment). Finally, we point out that many of the assumptions required to make these safety arguments have not been confidently satisfied to date and require making progress on multiple open research problems.

I am honoured to be chairing the delivery of the inaugural International Scientific Report on Advanced AI Safety. I am proud to publish this interim report which is the culmination of huge efforts by many experts over the six months since the work was commissioned at the Bletchley Park AI Safety Summit in November 2023. We know that advanced AI is developing very rapidly, and that there is considerable uncertainty over how these advanced AI systems might affect how we live and work in the future. AI has tremendous potential to change our lives for the better, but it also poses risks of harm. That is why having this thorough analysis of the available scientific literature and expert opinion is essential. The more we know, the better equipped we are to shape our collective destiny.